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The most important thing that scenarios do is help us get used to the fact that the future is uncertain. By coming to terms with this we develop the requisite flexibility of thinking and preparedness for the unexpected, Andrew Grove’s famous „organisational paranoia“, that will help us think on our feet and react fast when circumstances change. Personally, I would like to see finance officers and those involved in strategic financial planning do a lot more scenarios and a lot less modelling.

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